Software Development

JG Consultant & Ocean Engineering Services is engaged in development of standalone small scale software applications, that also encompass a method for financial evaluation of investment in new technology and innovation for Clean Energy & Transport.

Business Economics

Ex-ante cost-benefit analysis of experimental and new technologies is related with the high uncertainty, which can be accounted for in a kind of probabilistic sensitivity analysis conducted with the use of a simulation method.

This is a tool to automate financial evaluation of investment in sustainable technology as part of a common platform for sustainability of new technology development & innovation, impact management and financial evaluation of investment in sustainable new technology projects.

The objective is to measure and quantify uncertainty and risk with probabilistic distribution models that includes the stochastic processes that underly the cost-benefit measures and discounted cash-flow from investment in sustainable new technology and innovation in clean energy and transport.

The Figure below is showing a capital flow diagram for financial evaluation of investment opportunities using the free-cash-flow through the company.

Cash-flow in financial evaluation of investment opportunities (Source: JG Consultant & Ocean Engineering Services).

Uncertainty refers to the state of information about a variable or parameter of interest, whereas variability refers to a parameter varying across a sample. Risk is defined as the uncertainty associated with a key value criterion.

In the traditional sensitivity analysis of cash-flow components, the effect of change in only one variable is considered at a time, where the method to measure risk is to determine several different scenarios for probable results of discounted cash flow (DCF) or net present value (NPV) to justify a realization of the project.

In contrast a simulation method, however, improves on this by looking at the impact of many variables changing at the same time, where a probabilistic simulation model is using statistical distributions as input to incorporate uncertainty and risk. The simulation produces a distribution of the possible outcomes from the simulation, and then a detailed statistical description for the variables of interest and the probability of different outcomes in each scenario is achieved.

Probability distributions are mathematical statistics functions used in data analysis that may be implemented to calculate probabilities of scenarios in cash-flow variables. Thus, many processes taking place in the operational life of a ship can optionally be described by different distributions that have been well-researched and analysed. Extending this application around these goes a long way towards being able to statistically model a range of cash-flow phenomena.

This will include a more extensive scope of descriptive statistics that describes data to provide information for future cash-flow; however, it will not allow for conclusions to be made based on the analysis but rather provide a description of the future cash-flow being analysed.

Therefore, this model is extended with inferential statistics that draws conclusions from data, and, thus, allow for conclusions to be made based on the analysis.

Decision support for sustainable technology development require software tools that make it easier for planners, decision-makers and industry to consider new technologies at the critically important initial planning stage.

A common platform for evaluation and development will include:

Decision support for clean energy technology development require software tools that make it easier for planners, decision-makers and industry to consider energy efficient and renewable energy technologies at the critically important initial planning stage.
Decision support tools that significantly reduce the cost of assessing possible projects.
Provide these tools to users via the Internet.
Training & technical support provided via network.
Industry products & services accessible via an Internet Marketplace.
Applications able to perform high-quality & low-cost preliminary feasibility studies.